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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest surprise.

But this year's field is profoundly different. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising together. During an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's facing multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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